Will Panasonic lead the professional HD camcorder market with AVC in 2007? at FreshDV

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Will Panasonic lead the professional HD camcorder market with AVC in 2007?

Published by admin August 29th, 2006 in Cameras, Formats, News

Former broadcast industry executive Tore Nordahl recently published some predictions on the AVCHD format in the professional and broadcast space. He believes that AVC will replace HDV, and in the very near future. In a recent essay entitled “Will Panasonic lead the professional HD camcorder market with AVC in 2007?”, Nordahl opens with the bold statement “HDV is in trouble.”

“Panasonic never joined the “HDV club” choosing to tough it out with the HVX200 DVCPRO-HD P2 camcorder (with success) while developing its AVC technology. Panasonic’s decision not to spend on HDV R&D will pay off big in 2007, when I expect to see several Panasonic AVC-based HD camcorders both for semi-pro and pro use.”

Nordahl goes on to note that earlier this spring Sony and Panasonic announced the joint AVCHD H.264 format. With potentially double the encoding efficiency of HDV, he predicts that AVC can easily outperform HDV in the 20Mbps datarate arena.

Mentioning the HDR-SR1 and HDR-UX1 high-end Sony consumer model announcements, he predicts Panasonic professional model AVC announcements by October 2006.

Nordahl has stated “Panasonic is fully committed to AVC in the longer term for their entire HD camcorder range.” and cites evidence from the latest National Association of Broadcasters convention:

“At NAB-2006, Panasonic announced their new AVC-Intra 50Mbps video payload compression in their yet to ship AJ-HPC2000 full size fully professional HD camcorder.”

He predicts that AVCHD will make inroads very soon in the prosumer and professional space with flash memory-based camcorders, as well as models offering recording to Blu-ray and hard disk, stating:

“I expect Panasonic to announce a HVX200-type camcorder with AVCHD CODEC and mini-Blue-ray Disc recording, in addition to SecureDigital and/or P2 soon. Panasonic badly needs a semi-professional HD camcorder line-up by end of 2006, not to lose market share.”

“Look for new semi-professional AVCHD models selling for as little as $3,000 from Panasonic.”

So what do you make of all this? I’m personally inclined to opine that the rumors of HDV’s death are greatly exaggerated, and that AVC is a long way from replacing anything in the competitive 1/3″ imager market. Though I do see AVC making inroads in the consumer market, and in cameras under $1500. Canon’s recent HDV announcements only serves to legitimize the format and cement it’s usefulness for years to come. HDV is the new DV, and I believe that it’s here to stay for several more years.

11 Responses to “Will Panasonic lead the professional HD camcorder market with AVC in 2007?”

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1 Mike Curtis Aug 29th, 2006 at 2:06 am

I’d say it takes time - even if they do roll out new cameras for pros, takeup will be slow until the NLEs get native support with FirWire/USB 2.0/Ethernet/something common support (FireWire likely since it is already the “video spigot” for so many native codec editing workflows - DV, DVCAM, DVCPRO, DVCPRO50, DVCPRO HD, HDV, etc.)

So AVC will be the odd man out, the coulda-shoulda, until native codec support hits, and hits on all cylinders. Note how we’re still hamstrung for 24p support in HDV from Canon and JVC, and don’t have 18 or 35mbit support as yet (but at least 24p is!).

I predict that would be fall 2007 at the earliest. Note Apple and FCP aren’t even on the early adopter list. Adobe is, is Avid?
2 Mike Curtis Aug 29th, 2006 at 2:08 am

oops unfinished thoughts - 18 and 35mbit support for XDCAM HD, but at least it has 24p support.

Fall 2007 at earliest for native NLE support in the big three. Adobe may jump on it early at NAB 2007.
3 Isaac Botkin Aug 31st, 2006 at 4:13 pm

See, my problem with HDV is that there’s too much compression. So I’m not exactly thrilled with AVC in general, much less as a replacement for a mid-level pro codec that we don’t even have yet. XDCAM and P2 cards are the only things that come close… and I see the AVC market as being quite different indeed.
4 yarisma Oct 3rd, 2007 at 11:24 am

Adobe may jump on it early at NAB 2007
5 oyun Oct 28th, 2007 at 3:33 pm

18 and 35mbit support for XDCAM HD, but at least it has 24p support.
6 videos Jan 19th, 2008 at 1:50 am

Adobe may jump on it early at NAB 2007
7 super arama Jan 19th, 2008 at 1:54 am

XDCAM and P2 cards are the only things that come closeâ€¦ and I see the AVC market as being quite different indeed.
8 vido Feb 12th, 2008 at 12:39 am

I see the AVC market as being quite different indeed
9 Oyun Jun 1st, 2008 at 9:18 pm

very thanx nice good…
10 kelebek Sep 8th, 2008 at 2:12 pm

Adobe may jump on it early at NAB 2007
11 Estetik Nov 22nd, 2008 at 11:18 pm

For those of you thinking that if they implement this it will eliminate some of the waiting and lines…